Застосування методу прогнозування в політичній історії
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Date
2019
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Дніпровський національний університет ім. О. Гончара
Abstract
UKR: Розглянуто метод прогнозування в історичній науці на основі теоретичних узагальнень. Подані практичні поради щодо використання означеного методу під час викладання історичних дисциплін у вищій школі.
RUS: Рассматривается метод прогнозирования в исторической науке на основе теоретических обобщений. Представлены практические советы по использо¬ванию указанного метода во время преподавания исторических дисциплин в высшей школе.
ENG: The article is devoted to the research of the use of the forecasting method. Examples of the application of this method in historical science of the Middle Ages, the Renaissance and modern times are given. The significance of the forecasting method for the formation of a national idea and consciousness in the United States is given. The historical development of the United States provides ample opportunities for scientifically based prediction of the future fate of the leading world. Historical studies use such pairs of methods as reversing and presenting forecast and eschatology and futurology. It is determined that methods of reversible and predictive forecasting can yield data that fill the gaps in historical sources. The forecasting method is often associated with an analogy, which in the broadest sense is the basis of science. Areas of sharing the methods of forecasting and analogy from inventive activity to political technologies and to stimulating the creative process. The method of forecasting can be applied not only in scientific, but also in pedagogical work during the teaching of historical disciplines. The method of analogy in connection with forecasting in the educational process should be used in considering the issues of the formation and decline of Ukrainian statehood.
RUS: Рассматривается метод прогнозирования в исторической науке на основе теоретических обобщений. Представлены практические советы по использо¬ванию указанного метода во время преподавания исторических дисциплин в высшей школе.
ENG: The article is devoted to the research of the use of the forecasting method. Examples of the application of this method in historical science of the Middle Ages, the Renaissance and modern times are given. The significance of the forecasting method for the formation of a national idea and consciousness in the United States is given. The historical development of the United States provides ample opportunities for scientifically based prediction of the future fate of the leading world. Historical studies use such pairs of methods as reversing and presenting forecast and eschatology and futurology. It is determined that methods of reversible and predictive forecasting can yield data that fill the gaps in historical sources. The forecasting method is often associated with an analogy, which in the broadest sense is the basis of science. Areas of sharing the methods of forecasting and analogy from inventive activity to political technologies and to stimulating the creative process. The method of forecasting can be applied not only in scientific, but also in pedagogical work during the teaching of historical disciplines. The method of analogy in connection with forecasting in the educational process should be used in considering the issues of the formation and decline of Ukrainian statehood.
Description
Keywords
метод прогнозування, метод аналогії, наукова і педагогічна діяльність, есхатологія, футурологія, метод прогнозирования, метод аналогии, научная и педагогическая деятельность, эсхатология, футурология, forecasting method, analogical method, scientific and pedagogical activity, eschatology, futurology, КУ
Citation
Калашников, В. М. Застосування методу прогнозування в політичній історії / В. М. Калашников, І. С. Накашидзе // Проблеми політичної історії України : зб. наук. пр. Дніпропетр. нац. ун-ту ім. Олеся Гончара. – Дніпро, 2019. – № 14. – С. 6–16. – DOI: 10.33287/1191.