Risk System and Railway Safety

Abstract

EN: Abstract. When organizing transport processes on the railway, the most important component is the safety of railway traffic. Each country has a separate approach for assessing the safety of railway traffic on domestic railways. However, railway safety and other modes of transport is associated with technical or managerial risks. Assessment of the safety condition of traffic on Ukrainian railways is carried out by absolute and specific indicators resulting from statistical data. So far as the existing methodology for assessing the level of railway traffic safety does not provide a real and adequate picture, the problem of developing a risk system is relevant. The paper presents a risk system for assessing the level of actual and predicted safety of railway traffic. The risk system includes general, local, technological and technical risks. Each risk has a quantitative characteristic and can be applied to assess the safety of the railway traffic. The developed risk system is implemented as an application program and implemented at the railway enterprises of Ukraine. The presented system of risks and their posterior and priori values allow us to characterize the real state of railway traffic safety for the study period. Based on the obtained values of posteriori and priori risks, it is possible to characterize the actual and predicted safety of the railway traffic.