Research of Traffic Prediction Accuracy Influence on the Effectiveness of Trains Breaking-Up Order Control

Abstract

EN: The article presents the research results of economic feasibility of trains’ breaking-up order control at marshalling yards. The article objective was to determine the area of rational use of trains’ breaking-up order model, formalized in the form of stochastic programming problem. As a effectiveness criterion of trains’ breaking-up order operating costs of marshalling yard were used, including the costs associated with cars’ and locomotives’ dwell time on the station and its approaches, as well as costs associated with additional shunting work. With the help of simulation modeling the dependence was obtained, describing the impact of trains’ arrival forecasting error and processed car volumes on reducing operating costs of the marshalling yards through the trains’ breaking-up order control. The studies enable us to establish the requirements for the accuracy of information support of operational planning tasks, which is necessary to achieve the desired economic effect of the trains’ breaking-up order control.