Risk Level Assesment While Organizational-Managerial Decision Making in the Condition of Dynamic External Environment
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Date
2018
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Національний технічний університет «Дніпровська політехніка», Дніпро
Abstract
EN: Purpose. The purpose of the article is forming a complex factor of the project risk level assessment while organizational and economic decision making in a dynamic external environment based on measurement theory. Methodology. The results are obtained through the application of the following methods: scientific generalization – for the formulation of scientific problems and general conclusions; measurement – to assess the project risk level; decision-making – to identify the problems of modeling the tasks of organizational and managerial decision making; modeling – during the elaboration of a risk level complex factor.
Findings. The risk uniformity factor is substantiated. It can be used to characterize an investment project in terms of the neighboring risk. This coefficient can be used as a correction one in the formation of a complete evaluation of risk package. Originality. Provisions of risk quantitative assessment in the organization activity in the condition of the dynamic external environment is further developed. The difference from other approaches is the refusal of a priori assumptions about the stochasticity of studied processes and quantities. A distinctive feature of the proposed approach is also the sphere of the risk implementation: it is advantageous to use “risk” not in all situations with random outcomes, but only when this outcome does present a significant danger for the decision-making subject, i. e. for example, if the outcome is related to the loss of a small amount for the investor, such an outcome is not considered risky. The concept of a “substantial” or “fractional” amount, has convincing objective component, although it is generally subjective. We proceed from the risk concept as a subjective characteristic of the situation in conditions of uncertainty, reflecting possible damage to the making decision subject. Practical value. Developed methodic considering risk factors influence, based on the offered approach to its quantitative estimation, will increase reliability level of accepted organizational-administrative decisions during the substantiation of projects cost and time indicators in the conditions of the dynamic external environment.
UK: Сформовано комплексний показник оцінки рівня ризику проекту при прийнятті організаційно-економічних рішень в умовах мінливого зовнішнього середовища на основі теорії вимірювань.
RU: Сформирован комплексный показатель оценки уровня риска проекта при принятии организационно-экономических решений в условиях изменчивой внешней среды на основе теории измерений.
UK: Сформовано комплексний показник оцінки рівня ризику проекту при прийнятті організаційно-економічних рішень в умовах мінливого зовнішнього середовища на основі теорії вимірювань.
RU: Сформирован комплексный показатель оценки уровня риска проекта при принятии организационно-экономических решений в условиях изменчивой внешней среды на основе теории измерений.
Description
V. Kovalov: ORCID 0000-0001-6731-4192
Keywords
risk, organizational and management decision, dynamic environment, damage, measurement, reliability, ризик, організаційно-управлінське рішення, мінливе середовище, збиток, вимірювання, надійність, риск, организационно-управленческое решение, изменчивая середа, ущерб, измерение, надежность, КПБД
Citation
Risk level assesment while organizational-managerial decision making in the condition of dynamic external environment: [preprint] / Ye. Zaiats, T. Kravchunovska, V. Kovalov, O. Kirnos // Наук. вісн. Нац. гірничого ун-ту – 2018. – № 2 (164). – С. 123–129.